Name: Statistician Analyzes "Climate Change Makes Hurricanes Worse" Claim
Uploaded: 2022-11-09T18:08:16.000Z
Description: Watch the stand-up comedy video 'Statistician Analyzes "Climate Change Makes Hurricanes Worse" Claim' from PowerfulJRE on Comedy Buff. Published 2022-11-09. Transcript available.

Watch the stand-up comedy video 'Statistician Analyzes "Climate Change Makes Hurricanes Worse" Claim' from PowerfulJRE on Comedy Buff. Published 2022-11-09. Transcript available.

So the real challenge here is how do we find a way that means the vast amount,
so the 6.5 billion
people who are not rich can actually get a great living by the end of the
century and we can also
fix climate change and that's only going to happen if we find the technological
breakthroughs not by
telling everyone, I'm sorry, could you do with less? Not only is that not going
to win any
elections in the long run but it's also just not going to be possible to
convince China, India,
Africa to do that. Now what about the impact on climate change and natural
storms, hurricanes
and the like, how much are they increasing? How much is the severity of them
increasing?
Because that's a big point of confusion for people. I've heard multiple people
say that
their storms are worse than ever and more frequent than ever and then I've
heard people say no
they're actually less frequent than ever but stronger. I've even heard people
say no no no
they're more frequent and less strong. So I don't know what's going on.
Yeah. So if the biggest point on this I think is they're certainly much
stronger on TV, right? I mean
you hear much much more about them because they're such great stories. Yeah,
they absolutely they sell. But if you actually look
at the data, we cannot tell right now. So that's that's the conclusion from the
from the government agencies of the U.S.
as well. We can't still tell that there's a fingerprint from climate change on
hurricanes.
We can't? So no, we can't. Why can't we? Because there's such a natural
variability
that you can't see, oh, this increase or this decrease is because of global
warming. Is there an
increased trend currently? Well, so in the 1960s, sorry, in the 1970s and 80s,
there was a lull in hurricanes that hit the U.S. That was also when satellite
coverage started. So much of
what you see now is if you start from the 1970s and 1980s, there is an increase
for the U.S.
But that's probably spurious because if you go back in the 1950s and 1960s,
there was actually just as
many hurricanes. So what you do and this is by far the best estimate. So I
actually have that. I brought
that with me. If you take a look at slide four on A in the A file. There we see
if you look at
the number of hurricanes that have hit the U.S. Because remember, we don't know
about the hurricanes
that we couldn't see back when we didn't have satellites. Now we see them
because we have
satellites. But that's obviously the wrong way to count. So if you just look at
the hurricanes that
landfall on the U.S., you get this graph. So this is from 1900 to 2022. Yeah.
So 2022 is obviously not done,
but it's probably done. And it looks incredibly similar. It's actually slightly
decreasing.
This is not significant. Slightly decreasing from 2008. Sorry. Or from 2004,
rather.
From 19... If you try to put in the best line, as you can see, that's the
dotted red line. You actually
have a slightly decreasing line. Oh, I see. I see the overall, the average.
Yeah. The overall average used
to be more like two hurricanes per season. What the hell? And that's down to 1.6
or something.
Sorry. What the hell was going on in 1980? It looks like 86. Yeah. Yeah. I was
going to pull up a...
This is a contradicting chart, though. Okay. Hit me with it. It specifies,
though,
North Atlantic, which this does not. Okay. So North Atlantic is where the
predominant
amount of hurricanes exist in the United States. Is that correct? Or South
Atlantic? It's South
Atlantic. So North Atlantic would have less of them because the water's colder?
Northern
hemisphere, I believe, is not just... It's not North compared to the United
States. It's North
versus South hemisphere. Oh, okay. Okay. Why Atlantic hurricanes are getting
stronger,
faster than other storms? Yeah. So, Hurricane Ian...
This increased 264% since 1980, compared to the globe, according to this chart.
Percentage of tropical cyclone activity with major intensity. So major
intensity indicates that the
sustained wind speeds reach a category three level or higher. So it seems like
there's more of them.
Yes. And notice what that happens. It starts in 1980. And that's why, you know,
when you do these numbers,
it's very easy to get this result if you start in 1980, when they were much
lower. If I can just show
you the other graph again, because I showed you for all of the hurricanes, but
we also have,
if you take the next slide, that's just the strong hurricane. So that's exactly
the same as what you
just showed, category three and higher. And what you see here, again, is that
there are fewer hurricanes,
not more hurricanes hitting the U.S. today than there used to be back in the
early part of 1990.
Is this saying there's only one per year, or...?
Yes.
That doesn't feel like that's right, though.
This is one major hurricane landfalling each year. Yeah.
Yeah.
Is that usually what we get? And so, if you go all the way back to 2006, which
is that year we were talking
about, it looks like there was four. So that...so from 80...so when you're
looking at that major...
That was 2005. That was Hurricane Katrina and all these others.
Okay. So when you're looking at that other chart that shows the increase from
1980...see with 1980,
it's just...all those years, it's just one. And then it gets up to four in 2006.
And that's a rough year.
So all that factors into the average, and that kicks the average up to 264%.
But a lot of it is from 2006.
And a lot of it is because you just, you know, go from a period when there is a
relative low
to a period when it's back up.
On these charts, what is it differentiating as major or not major? Because didn't
we get to like...we
almost got through all the names, I thought, a couple years ago.
So, yes. Sorry. So major is category three. But these are all landfalling.
Remember, a lot of
hurricanes are not landfalling. So the reason why we run out of names is
because we are able to see
a lot more of them. So they actually estimate...this is a reanalysis by NOAA
and all those guys. So they
actually found that we now name about four storms more than we would have named
in the early 2000s
every year. Because we've just become better at, you know, notice...oh, there
was a hurricane,
and then it dropped off. Right. Because they don't hit.
Not only because they don't hit, but typically they're just one or two days.
What's the percentage of them that actually hit? The problem is like when they
get strong enough
on the ocean that they can carry over onto the land and devastate the land.
So the reason why I'm looking at landfall is because in the early part of last
century,
you would have...it's very likely that someone would have noticed a landfalling
hurricane anywhere
in the U.S. But if it's out in the middle of nowhere, there's a very good
chance nobody would
have noticed. Actually, you can see in the data that when the Panama Canal
opened,
you know, ships started going a different route. So there is a big part of the
Atlantic that they no
longer traversed. And so we never...so, you know, the number of hurricanes
dropped in those areas.
Because, you know, you needed to have sort of a ship to be out there and
noticing. That's why
it's a very, very bad way to look at this if you just look at how many
hurricanes do we know about,
because we just know about a lot more now. So that's from satellite radar. And
that was what
year they started implementing satellite? This is about 1980.
1980. Okay. So that's when...okay. So it's not clear, is what you're saying.
Your point was to basically say what people are worried about is that there's
going to be a lot
more hurricanes. Well, actually, so the best evidence seems to indicate, as
that was one of
the points that you said, that there will probably be fewer hurricanes, but
they will be stronger.
And overall, stronger is worse than fewer is better. Which means that overall,
there'll be slightly more
damage. Right. So global warming is bad. That's, you know, one of the many
things that, you know,
will actually be worse with global warming. But it's not terribly bad. It's
somewhat worse.
And of course, at the same time, we're getting much better at dealing with this
impact. What you're
actually seeing, if you look at the total cost, for instance, on hurricane
impacts and all kinds of
climate impacts, it's actually going down, not up in percent of GDP. Why?
Because we now know we have
much better prediction. We know how to, you know, deal with these things, for
instance, get a lot of stuff
that can be moved, we get it out of harm's way. So every time there's a
hurricane, you know, all
all trucks will go to other states, that kind of thing. So there's a lot of
things that don't get
damaged. We can also build better, as you talked about, with houses and so on.
So we have a lot of
ways to reduce us. But what is happening is, it'll reduce slightly less fast
because of global warming.
Again, not the end of the world, but a problem.
So the fear mongering would have you terrified about a future that's impossible
to fix and that we're
doomed. And you're simply saying it is a problem, but it's not our biggest
problem.
It's a problem in the sense that it slows down progress, right? And if I can
just, you know,
because people talk a lot about the fact that we won't have enough food either.
I have another slide
on the B file. And, God, I need glasses. And number six.
I was just Googling this. 2020, it says 11 hurricanes made it to land.
Here. A total of 11 named storms made land full in the United States, breaking
the previous record
of nine in 1916. Sorry, 11 named storms?
Six of these were storms that struck the United States. That's hurricane
intensity.
They were talking about category three and above.
That was just this one, though. Right.
His chart, which was this. Is it all hurricanes?
This is major hurricanes. You need to go back.
So category one, which is the worst? Is category one the worst, or four?
This is all hurricanes. No, this is five.
Four is the worst, right? Five is the worst, yeah.
This just says four hurricanes hit US and four. And then when I Google it, it
says there's
at least six, if not 11. Yeah, that's, I mean, this is period literature. I
have no doubt. And
the updates are for the guy who actually did it. This is 2020, Jamie?
Yeah, I just was trying to pick one year. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, that's great.
That was all, you know? That was all, you know?
Mm. And these, and the one that, this was saying they're intensifying. This
says that,
like, since 1950, only nine category four hurricanes have hit the mainland. But
six of those were in the last five years.
Whoa. That seems like a problem. That's a big problem.
Doesn't that seem like a big problem? Seeing that, I would see why people would
freak out.
Yeah, and this is, so we can't sit here and do period research in real time.
I'm sure- Right, but you do need contradicting statements.
Oh, no, no, no, absolutely. But I am saying that, so I'm, I'm happy to say that
we should,
uh, so there's very little, uh, four and five hurricanes. That's why they, uh,
the major,
and that was also why the other graph, uh, uh, showed the change in, uh, in, um,
uh, in three,
three, four and five. Can you go back to that again, please, for a second?
Look at that, man. Andrew was even more powerful than Ian in 92. That was a 165
mile an hour one.
What's the fucking strongest one that we've ever had?
Is that all of them that we've had during the last, uh, so that's the last 50
years?
In the 50 years, yeah. I think, yeah, when that was like 92, I think that was-
So Ian was the strongest, or Andrew, excuse me, was the strongest. That was 165.
Katrina's not even on this list.
No. Wow. Why isn't Katrina on the list?
I don't know. That was a big one, wasn't it?
Yeah. Wasn't it hurricane three, category three?
It could have just been big and long and just lasted for a long time instead of-
Right. The devastation was big because of where it hit.
Yes. Wow.
Also, if you look at the major hurricanes, uh, uh, we had the biggest drought
ever,
so there were 11 years where there were no major hurricane that hit the U.S.
recently.
I don't know if you noticed, that was when nobody talked about hurricanes.
And then, of course, the hurricanes came back and then we said, oh, see global
warming again.
This is how we're not being well-served with this kind of conversation.
What is your book called? False Alarm?
False Alarm, yeah.
Do you have it?
No, I don't have one yet.
Here.
Thank you very much.
Um, I don't, I wouldn't say false alarm.
I would say there's a lot of other shit to be worried about as well.
Yes, yes.
But it is, but it also seems to be a problem.
That's the other book I brought you.
Prioritizing Development.
Yes.
Ah, I see.
So this is, this is basically, this is what my day job really is, uh, because
as, as you also know,
and as we've talked a little bit about, so look, there's a lot of problems in
the world.
And for most people, so rich people who are, you know, well ensconced in their
lives and they,
you know, they don't have to worry about their kids dying from, uh, infectious
diseases or,
or, you know, not having enough food, all that kind of stuff.
They clearly can worry about what the temperature is going to be in a hundred
years.
But for most of the planet's population, so, you know, the 6.5 billion people
here,
they actually worry about their kids might die tonight.
They might not have enough food.
They have terrible education.
There are all kinds of other terrible things.
You know, almost a billion people are extremely poor.
So in terms of the overall impact on human health and life, elevating the
economy is
the most important step that people can take.
It's certainly a very important part of it.
And again, when we, sorry, if I could just show you the, the one of malnutrition,
the, uh, the slide, uh, from the B set, uh, stack number six.
Sorry. So what I just want to show you was that malnutrition has come down
dramatically.
And again, what you see here is, so this is the number of deaths, uh, uh, from,
uh,
so from kids that are less than five years old.
Uh, and again, this is very similar to the other chart, a little bit of a
difference,
the difference between with climate change and without climate change,
without climate change is only slightly lower.
But the overall trend is much, much, much lower than it was in 1990.
Yeah.
And this is because we're getting better at, you know, making agriculture.
Uh, this is what we talked about before.
They're much better in India.
They're much better everywhere.
So the overall net benefit is positive.
We're, we're, we're moving towards a world that's going to be much better.
So these guys that are protesting think it's the end of the world.
No, it's not.
It's a world that's going to be much better.
But they're right in saying that climate is one problem.
And we should definitely think about how we fix that.
But we should also remember a large part of this is how do we fix all the other
problems?

Statistician Analyzes "Climate Change Makes Hurricanes Worse" Claim

So the real challenge here is how do we find a way that means the vast amount,
so the 6.5 billion
people who are not rich can actually get a great living by the end of the
century and we can also
fix climate change and that's only going to happen if we find the technological
breakthroughs not by
telling everyone, I'm sorry, could you do with less? Not only is that not going
to win any
elections in the long run but it's also just not going to be possible to
convince China, India,
Africa to do that. Now what about the impact on climate change and natural
storms, hurricanes
and the like, how much are they increasing? How much is the severity of them
increasing?
Because that's a big point of confusion for people. I've heard multiple people
say that
their storms are worse than ever and more frequent than ever and then I've
heard people say no
they're actually less frequent than ever but stronger. I've even heard people
say no no no
they're more frequent and less strong. So I don't know what's going on.
Yeah. So if the biggest point on this I think is they're certainly much
stronger on TV, right? I mean
you hear much much more about them because they're such great stories. Yeah,
they absolutely they sell. But if you actually look
at the data, we cannot tell right now. So that's that's the conclusion from the
from the government agencies of the U.S.
as well. We can't still tell that there's a fingerprint from climate change on
hurricanes.
We can't? So no, we can't. Why can't we? Because there's such a natural
variability
that you can't see, oh, this increase or this decrease is because of global
warming. Is there an
increased trend currently? Well, so in the 1960s, sorry, in the 1970s and 80s,
there was a lull in hurricanes that hit the U.S. That was also when satellite
coverage started. So much of
what you see now is if you start from the 1970s and 1980s, there is an increase
for the U.S.
But that's probably spurious because if you go back in the 1950s and 1960s,
there was actually just as
many hurricanes. So what you do and this is by far the best estimate. So I
actually have that. I brought
that with me. If you take a look at slide four on A in the A file. There we see
if you look at
the number of hurricanes that have hit the U.S. Because remember, we don't know
about the hurricanes
that we couldn't see back when we didn't have satellites. Now we see them
because we have
satellites. But that's obviously the wrong way to count. So if you just look at
the hurricanes that
landfall on the U.S., you get this graph. So this is from 1900 to 2022. Yeah.
So 2022 is obviously not done,
but it's probably done. And it looks incredibly similar. It's actually slightly
decreasing.
This is not significant. Slightly decreasing from 2008. Sorry. Or from 2004,
rather.
From 19... If you try to put in the best line, as you can see, that's the
dotted red line. You actually
have a slightly decreasing line. Oh, I see. I see the overall, the average.
Yeah. The overall average used
to be more like two hurricanes per season. What the hell? And that's down to 1.6
or something.
Sorry. What the hell was going on in 1980? It looks like 86. Yeah. Yeah. I was
going to pull up a...
This is a contradicting chart, though. Okay. Hit me with it. It specifies,
though,
North Atlantic, which this does not. Okay. So North Atlantic is where the
predominant
amount of hurricanes exist in the United States. Is that correct? Or South
Atlantic? It's South
Atlantic. So North Atlantic would have less of them because the water's colder?
Northern
hemisphere, I believe, is not just... It's not North compared to the United
States. It's North
versus South hemisphere. Oh, okay. Okay. Why Atlantic hurricanes are getting
stronger,
faster than other storms? Yeah. So, Hurricane Ian...
This increased 264% since 1980, compared to the globe, according to this chart.
Percentage of tropical cyclone activity with major intensity. So major
intensity indicates that the
sustained wind speeds reach a category three level or higher. So it seems like
there's more of them.
Yes. And notice what that happens. It starts in 1980. And that's why, you know,
when you do these numbers,
it's very easy to get this result if you start in 1980, when they were much
lower. If I can just show
you the other graph again, because I showed you for all of the hurricanes, but
we also have,
if you take the next slide, that's just the strong hurricane. So that's exactly
the same as what you
just showed, category three and higher. And what you see here, again, is that
there are fewer hurricanes,
not more hurricanes hitting the U.S. today than there used to be back in the
early part of 1990.
Is this saying there's only one per year, or...?
Yes.
That doesn't feel like that's right, though.
This is one major hurricane landfalling each year. Yeah.
Yeah.
Is that usually what we get? And so, if you go all the way back to 2006, which
is that year we were talking
about, it looks like there was four. So that...so from 80...so when you're
looking at that major...
That was 2005. That was Hurricane Katrina and all these others.
Okay. So when you're looking at that other chart that shows the increase from
1980...see with 1980,
it's just...all those years, it's just one. And then it gets up to four in 2006.
And that's a rough year.
So all that factors into the average, and that kicks the average up to 264%.
But a lot of it is from 2006.
And a lot of it is because you just, you know, go from a period when there is a
relative low
to a period when it's back up.
On these charts, what is it differentiating as major or not major? Because didn't
we get to like...we
almost got through all the names, I thought, a couple years ago.
So, yes. Sorry. So major is category three. But these are all landfalling.
Remember, a lot of
hurricanes are not landfalling. So the reason why we run out of names is
because we are able to see
a lot more of them. So they actually estimate...this is a reanalysis by NOAA
and all those guys. So they
actually found that we now name about four storms more than we would have named
in the early 2000s
every year. Because we've just become better at, you know, notice...oh, there
was a hurricane,
and then it dropped off. Right. Because they don't hit.
Not only because they don't hit, but typically they're just one or two days.
What's the percentage of them that actually hit? The problem is like when they
get strong enough
on the ocean that they can carry over onto the land and devastate the land.
So the reason why I'm looking at landfall is because in the early part of last
century,
you would have...it's very likely that someone would have noticed a landfalling
hurricane anywhere
in the U.S. But if it's out in the middle of nowhere, there's a very good
chance nobody would
have noticed. Actually, you can see in the data that when the Panama Canal
opened,
you know, ships started going a different route. So there is a big part of the
Atlantic that they no
longer traversed. And so we never...so, you know, the number of hurricanes
dropped in those areas.
Because, you know, you needed to have sort of a ship to be out there and
noticing. That's why
it's a very, very bad way to look at this if you just look at how many
hurricanes do we know about,
because we just know about a lot more now. So that's from satellite radar. And
that was what
year they started implementing satellite? This is about 1980.
1980. Okay. So that's when...okay. So it's not clear, is what you're saying.
Your point was to basically say what people are worried about is that there's
going to be a lot
more hurricanes. Well, actually, so the best evidence seems to indicate, as
that was one of
the points that you said, that there will probably be fewer hurricanes, but
they will be stronger.
And overall, stronger is worse than fewer is better. Which means that overall,
there'll be slightly more
damage. Right. So global warming is bad. That's, you know, one of the many
things that, you know,
will actually be worse with global warming. But it's not terribly bad. It's
somewhat worse.
And of course, at the same time, we're getting much better at dealing with this
impact. What you're
actually seeing, if you look at the total cost, for instance, on hurricane
impacts and all kinds of
climate impacts, it's actually going down, not up in percent of GDP. Why?
Because we now know we have
much better prediction. We know how to, you know, deal with these things, for
instance, get a lot of stuff
that can be moved, we get it out of harm's way. So every time there's a
hurricane, you know, all
all trucks will go to other states, that kind of thing. So there's a lot of
things that don't get
damaged. We can also build better, as you talked about, with houses and so on.
So we have a lot of
ways to reduce us. But what is happening is, it'll reduce slightly less fast
because of global warming.
Again, not the end of the world, but a problem.
So the fear mongering would have you terrified about a future that's impossible
to fix and that we're
doomed. And you're simply saying it is a problem, but it's not our biggest
problem.
It's a problem in the sense that it slows down progress, right? And if I can
just, you know,
because people talk a lot about the fact that we won't have enough food either.
I have another slide
on the B file. And, God, I need glasses. And number six.
I was just Googling this. 2020, it says 11 hurricanes made it to land.
Here. A total of 11 named storms made land full in the United States, breaking
the previous record
of nine in 1916. Sorry, 11 named storms?
Six of these were storms that struck the United States. That's hurricane
intensity.
They were talking about category three and above.
That was just this one, though. Right.
His chart, which was this. Is it all hurricanes?
This is major hurricanes. You need to go back.
So category one, which is the worst? Is category one the worst, or four?
This is all hurricanes. No, this is five.
Four is the worst, right? Five is the worst, yeah.
This just says four hurricanes hit US and four. And then when I Google it, it
says there's
at least six, if not 11. Yeah, that's, I mean, this is period literature. I
have no doubt. And
the updates are for the guy who actually did it. This is 2020, Jamie?
Yeah, I just was trying to pick one year. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no, that's great.
That was all, you know? That was all, you know?
Mm. And these, and the one that, this was saying they're intensifying. This
says that,
like, since 1950, only nine category four hurricanes have hit the mainland. But
six of those were in the last five years.
Whoa. That seems like a problem. That's a big problem.
Doesn't that seem like a big problem? Seeing that, I would see why people would
freak out.
Yeah, and this is, so we can't sit here and do period research in real time.
I'm sure- Right, but you do need contradicting statements.
Oh, no, no, no, absolutely. But I am saying that, so I'm, I'm happy to say that
we should,
uh, so there's very little, uh, four and five hurricanes. That's why they, uh,
the major,
and that was also why the other graph, uh, uh, showed the change in, uh, in, um,
uh, in three,
three, four and five. Can you go back to that again, please, for a second?
Look at that, man. Andrew was even more powerful than Ian in 92. That was a 165
mile an hour one.
What's the fucking strongest one that we've ever had?
Is that all of them that we've had during the last, uh, so that's the last 50
years?
In the 50 years, yeah. I think, yeah, when that was like 92, I think that was-
So Ian was the strongest, or Andrew, excuse me, was the strongest. That was 165.
Katrina's not even on this list.
No. Wow. Why isn't Katrina on the list?
I don't know. That was a big one, wasn't it?
Yeah. Wasn't it hurricane three, category three?
It could have just been big and long and just lasted for a long time instead of-
Right. The devastation was big because of where it hit.
Yes. Wow.
Also, if you look at the major hurrican